How we use Trump's stranglehold on the GOP against him
Embarrassed MAGA voters gave Trump the presidency, but history shows they probably won't show up when he's not on the ballot.
Here's a fact that should not offer any consolation to anyone: Kamala Harris got enough votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to defeat Donald Trump... if she ran in 2020. In all three critical Blue Wall States, Harris topped Trump's 2020 totals. In Wisconsin, she even got more votes than Biden did in 2020.
So how did she lose?
With the help of Elon, Putin, and almost every carbon polluter on earth, Trump drove up his turnout dramatically in all his key rural areas. That's according to a new NBC News Decision Desk analysis:
Meanwhile: "The largest county in each state — Wayne County, Michigan, home of Detroit; Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania; and Milwaukee County, Wisconsin — had either the worst or second-worst shift in votes cast of any county in their state."
To be clear, the Democratic turnout in the Blue Wall was pretty good--better than in 2020 when there was a massive turnout. You'll notice that turnout was even up in Milwaukee County, just less than in Dane, where MAGA reigns. Trump's turnout improved drastically--almost incredibly. But you don't buy any conspiracy theories; Elon's phishing approach to voting helped Trump a lot. They swamped any potential MAGA voter while drowning the rest of us in divisive, confusing messages designed to tamp down support for Harris.
Still, we must recognize that Trump outperformed the polls in these three states for the third time. There are shy Trump voters! It makes sense. Why shouldn't they be embarrassed? Those voters elected him for the second time. But notably, they were not enough to sweep a Republican into the US Senate in two out of three Blue Wall states. Because, mostly, they left the rest of their ballots blank.
These voters turn out for Trump and no one else. And Democrats did not match that turnout for reasons I'll let Anat Shenker-Osorio explain.
Lots and lots of voters only show up for Trump. This is the source of his power. It's how he's in a position to threaten our constitutional order, as Andrea Pitzer explains in the podcast I'm helping her produce, Next Comes What. But let's stay in the mindset of basic electoral politics for a moment, knowing that will probably won't be enough to defeat Trump.
These Embarrassed MAGA voters didn't show up in 2018 or 2022, not in the purple states that matter. And they aren't likely to show up in 2026 if we have fair elections again, even though Elon's scam PAC will. We will have to find ways to counter that.
Let me correct myself: they will still be heard in Republican primaries, which are generally just contests to win Trump's endorsement. This creates an opportunity.
Every Republican candidate needs to please and serve Trump. And other Republicans, even MAGA ones in Bluer States, can’t count on his embarrassed voters to show up. That creates a bind. And it makes it even more important to oppose everything that Trump does to drive down his popularity and the popularity of his policies, which Republicans will have to cling to for dear life, in constant fear of him coming after them.
We must show visible refusal to comply because the absence of it implies consent. Most folks are reading social cues to understand what is & isn't acceptable & drawing their conclusions from what "common sense" dictates.
— Anat Shenker-Osorio (@anatosaurus.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 5:02 PM
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Our resistance to Trump matters. It's how we make him pay for his reliance on WWE Republicans, who only vote to keep him out of prison. It could also be our path back to something resembling democracy.
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